I’m interviewed on a podcast

The podcast Badugi Allstars interviewed me on their podcast. Talk included:

  • Why I wrote the book
  • How I don’t think I’m a genius or a poker tells “guru”
  • What makes my book different
  • The importance of correlating tells with specific situations
  • Dissing Joe Navarro and Mike Caro (respectfully)
  • Penis-shaped doughnuts (it’s a Portland, Oregon thing)

You can stream the audio or download it. If you want to skip right to me, I’m at the 48 minute mark or so.

For those interested in my chemical intake, for this podcast I took 1 milligram of Lorazepam (a prescription anti-anxiety drug), and about a shot and a half of rye whiskey.

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More poker tells in Rounders (besides KGB’s Oreo)

My email acquaintance Michael Blinder pointed out something very awesome in the movie Rounders. Both Teddy KGB and Mike McDermott (Matt Damon’s character) exhibit a few tells besides the infamous Oreo cookie one. Both of them exhibit a kind of poker tell I call “disclaimers”, which are verbal statements designed to explain away (in other words, disclaim) the meaning behind an action. It’s like when an amateur player moves all-in with the nuts and says “I’m pretty short, might as well go all in.” (Here’s a link to a previous post about disclaimers.)

Before going on, though, let’s look at an example from a real game, just so you know this has real-world application. Here’s a very obvious one from the PokerStars Big Game where amateur David Fishman makes the nuts on the river against Phil Hellmuth.

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Trying to influence villain to call or fold (false tells)

A guy emailed me about a hand where he tried to give a false tell of strength (showing his neighbor his cards) to get a guy to fold to his all-in flop bet. He described himself as playing in a high-stakes home game. His email led to a discussion about how smart it is to try to influence your opponents in such a way.

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Immediate calls are usually a drawing hand

Immediate calls tell you a lot. In my experience, they polarize someone’s hand range to either super-strong or a vulnerable hand like a decent draw or top pair weak kicker. Most often, though, it will be a draw. In this $15-30 limit hand, the guy’s immediate call lets you narrow his hand range a lot.

I have

As Ks

and raise UTG. I get one fairly tight player calling me in the BB. He is pretty straight-forward, although a tad too loose pre-flop (likes to play stuff like QJ too much). He knows I’m decent and has respect for my game. He is capable of tricky, aggressive moves but not too often.

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Silence in previously talkative guy equals discomfort

A few of us in the $15-30 game had been talking about the local school systems, with most of us even talking while we were playing hands. It was a kill pot, so it became $30-60, and this one guy who had been talking a lot, raised it under-the-gun. There was a slight confusion about something, and the floor was called to figure it out. In this interim, the raiser was completely quiet and seemed uncomfortable, which I thought was very unusual for him, considering his previous patterns. This made me think he was raising either with a low pair or with something like AT or worse, which would be pretty light in this game.

Sure enough, he ended up folding and showing AT. This would have been useful info if I was in last position; I would have felt pretty comfortable raising him with a wide range of hands, knowing he was on the lighter side, and also knowing he was a fairly predictable player post-flop.

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Genuinely angry call means weakness

This post and the next few posts will be an assortment of behavioral tells that helped me in my last $15-30 limit session. I wanted to share them and also write about them in the interest of helping me use them better in a session. Sometimes I get good tells but I don’t fully know the best strategy to make the best use of them.

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Betting motion behaviors in limit

I’ve been playing a $15-30 limit game, with a little bit of $20-40, the last few days. I had a few hands I wanted to talk about that pertain to betting motion speed and tendencies. Now that my book has gone to the printers, I’ve been having a lot of second-guessing and doubting of the way I phrased some things in the book. This is bound to happen, and I try not to beat myself up too much, because there’s no way you can polish a book 100% to your liking unless you worked on it forever. I always think of the Leonardo da Vinci quote: “A work of art is never finished; only abandoned.”

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Poker tells in limit hold’em: A critique of my book by Philip Newall

I’ve been reading Philip Newall’s book The Intelligent Poker Player (published by TwoPlusTwo). His book is about game theory optimal strategy, and is especially applicable to short-handed and heads-up limit Hold’em. I plan on writing a review of it soon, but in the meantime I’ll just say that I recommend it. Not only does he talk about strategy, he also has really good advice on playing poker for a living and on the state and future state of online games as he sees it.

I follow Newall on Twitter (@pnewall) and I got the idea to ask him for a critique of my book Reading Poker Tells. It was a little late (I’d already sent the book files to the printers a few days before), but I am always open to criticism and feedback,. I can always update later editions or make changes for the e-book version. Newall agreed to take a look on it, and his feedback was so good I wished I had sent it to him a long time ago.

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Repetitive body movements and stillness

A guy sent me an email with this question:

Just reviewing all my tells info again. Just curious if you had a quick opinion on this: if you have someone who engages in repetitive behavior, and then it stops, what does this mean? What are some examples of this you might see?

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Loose hand movements associated with high hand strength

I wanted to add another note about Martin Staszko and his tells at the 2011 WSOP ME. One of the biggest hands he got was when he had A9 and got a full house on the turn (click for video link to start of hand). As I stated in the last post, I think he had a lot of physical looseness in this situation, and I think this was due to having such strong cards. I think the looseness/relaxation of his hand and finger movements is pretty evident in this hand and I wanted to talk about it.

Check out this link where, on the turn, Heinz has bet and Staszko is “considering” a raise. Before putting the chips in, he does a weird little playful flipping of his chips which, to me, gives away his level of relaxation. Now, of course, it’s possible that a player could do this all the time, whether his hand was strong or weak, and it wouldn’t mean anything. But I think you’ll find if you watch a lot of Staszko’s footage that you won’t see him do this little playful thing ever again in any other hand. (If you do see it, please bring it to my attention, because I didn’t see it.)

If you compare Staszko’s hand movements in this clip with some of the other situations where he had much more vulnerable hands (linked to from my last blog post), I think you’ll notice more physical looseness overall, but especially in his hands. It’s very hard, in my opinion, for someone to be completely stoic and motionless, and hide all of the elements of relaxation, and I think this is one of the little areas where some information was leaking through.

 

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2011 WSOP: Martin Staszko’s (Possible) Poker Tells

I’ve been reviewing the 2011 WSOP Final Table footage of Staszko and Heinz, trying to pick up some patterns in Staszko’s body language. I haven’t been too successful. The main thing that got in the way of analyzing his body language patterns was that Staszko just didn’t bluff very much. In order to analyze someone’s tells you need to see how they act when they’re putting out a significant bluff and how they look when they’re putting out a significant value bet. Preferably you’d like to see a couple times of each, so you can correlate and compare the data a little better. And Staszko didn’t have much in the way of big bluffs. There were a couple medium bluffs, and there were a couple well-timed pushes when he got fairly low stacked. Unfortunately, in most of those cases, Heinz folded immediately, so I wasn’t able to see much in the way of post-bet tells (post-bet tells means the tells that occur after someone has bet). So while I didn’t get anything too good, I still think it’s worthwhile to share my opinions, because some of the stuff I’m talking about will apply to other people, even if they’re not that statistically significant for Staszko.

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“Disclaimers”: a category for some common verbal statements in poker

There is a class of verbal statements you hear a lot in poker that I call disclaimers. These are statements that attempt to explain away, or “disclaim, the real meaning behind an action. A basic example of this would be when a no-limit tournament player goes all in while announcing something like, “I’ve only got a few chips left. I guess I’ve got to go all-in.” He is implying that him not having many chips left is a primary reason for going all in. More often than not, that player will be strong, and the “disclaimer” will be pointing you in the wrong direction.

Another example would be when two players are heads-up on the flop and the player first to act, as if just noticing that it’s only the two of them, says in a friendly manner, “Just us? I’ll check.” (This is much more common in limit than in no-limit.) This player is implying that he’s checking because there are only two people playing, so he’s probably actually checking because he has a weak hand.

That’s pretty simple stuff. But sometimes disclaimers can be more subtle and can require more in-depth interpretation.

An example of a disclaimer: in a multi-way pot, the player last to act looks momentarily confused. “Everybody checked? I’ll bet.” He’s implying that the main reason for his bet is that everyone has shown weakness. It’s probably untrue and he’s most likely strong.

Another example: It’s a loose game, where there has been a lot of recent raising. A late-position player suddenly becomes belligerent when someone raises in front of him. “Raise! Raise! Raise! Everybody wants to raise!” he mock-yells, as if disgusted with how much everyone has been raising, and he throws in a second raise. He’s implying that he is only raising because he is irritated with the recent raising, so it’s likely he’s raising because he has a strong hand.

Thought I’d add an addendum on here; one I should probably put in the book, too. It’s pretty much only the weakest players you’ll hear making statements like this where they’ll be meaningful and obvious in this way. It’s a fairly obvious tell. For this reason, more experienced players will be more likely to say stuff like this and have it be a false tell. I’ll use these kinds of things occasionally when playing with strangers (the only time I use any false tells is against competent strangers) who I think perceive me as a fish, so would be likely to perceive my words in the way I want them to be perceived. For example, I’ll occasionally (rarely) do something like saying, “Oh, everyone checked? I guess I’ll bet” when I’m bluffing, but only when I think the players are capable of enough to interpret this statement as a typical tell from a recreational player.

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Some new book cover concepts

My designer sent me some concepts for the cover that I’d like to share and get feedback on. Keep in mind they’re very rough, just to give the general concept. You can click on an image in the gallery below to see it fullscreen. If there’s one direction of the following pics you like, please let me know in the comments area or just Tweet at me or email me. Or if you have any other ideas, I’d love to hear them. All of this would be much appreciated. Right now I’m almost certain I’m going with the ‘Fedora Man’ artwork (created by Zack Blanton, the artist – www.zackblanton.com) that you can see in my header, but my mind isn’t entirely made up.

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Watching the players directly to your left

I played in a $180 buy-in tournament the other day. I got knocked out in 18th out of 85 or so (JJ against AQ and AK all-in pre-flop). I think my observational skills play a big role in me consistently doing well in tournaments (although honestly I haven’t played in many decent buy-in ones). I spot a lot of body language stuff when the stacks get low in proportion to the blinds, when people are in shove-or-fold mode. One thing that has always helped me is keeping an eye on the players directly to my left, to spot if they’re giving away intended actions.

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Another example of Pius Heinz avoiding eye contact with a big hand

I was reviewing some WSOP footage and saw another very good example of Pius Heinz avoiding eye contact when he hits a big hand. This was the tell I talked about in my last WSOP-related post. This is pre-November-9, when they were nearing the final 9 players. A player named Pateychuk raises with QK and Heinz calls in the big blind with A9. The flop comes AQ9, giving Heinz two-pair. You should study Heinz’ demeanor in this hand, because it’s the same behavior you’ll see a lot of no-limit players make when they hit something strong. They’ll unconsciously assume a really deferential stance. They don’t want to stare at or study their opponent like they usually do, because they don’t want to intimidate an opponent. They unconsciously want to look like the prey, not the predator.

Some players will have this behavior, but some players will be more prone to avoiding eye contact when they’re bluffing. It just depends on what a player’s main tendency is, and it’s something you’ll have to notice. Assuming they have a tendency in the first place.

I’m working on my blog post about Martin Staszko’s tells at the final table. I think it’ll be a good one.

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Poker tells at 2011 WSOP Final Table: Pius Heinz’ eye-contact tell

I’m going to talk about what I thought was the most significant poker tell that I saw on the Final Table of this year’s WSOP NLHE Main Event (2011). It involves Pius Heinz and the amount of eye contact he would make with his opponent in different situations. In a nutshell, Heinz’ tell was that he would make very little eye contact with his opponent when he was betting a strong hand and wanted a call. This tell surfaced in situations where the bet was significant and when Heinz knew he wanted a call.

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Situations where poker tells are most important

I noticed a few poker tells I thought were significant in the 2011 WSOP Main Event final table, and I’ll be talking about them for the next couple blog posts. But for the most part, the tells were very few and far between. There were only a handful of moments in the play between the final four players (Heinz, Lamb, Staszko, and Giannetti) where I thought someone’s body language was giving away good information. This lack of tells is due to a couple reasons, in my opinion:

1)   Poker tells are rarely useful in any game between good players

2)   Most good players are smart enough to become fairly unreadable with a minimum amount of effort

I’ll talk about the first point in this post; the idea that tells play a very insubstantial role in most poker games played between strong players.

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2011 WSOP ME final table = great poker television

This year’s World Series of Poker Main Event final table was just great poker television. I haven’t been interested in watching televised tournaments for a long time, just because it’s usually so boring. I hate watching tournaments that have been edited, because you don’t get the game flow and they usually choose the most boring all-in situations to show. I also hate seeing the hole cards in real-time, because it takes any mental challenge out of watching it.

But this year, they televised the final table live (albeit with a 15-minute delay) and they didn’t show the players’ hole cards until the hand was over. This was such an awesome format for poker-lovers. Maybe not for your average Joe, who enjoys seeing the drama of “can this guy bluff the other guy out?” or “will this guy call this other guy’s bet with the nuts?”, but for anyone who likes thinking about strategy, hand ranges, tells, etc., it was fucking genius. Not to mention the players were all good players who were obviously thinking a lot about the consequences of every action.

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Self-delusion and overconfidence in poker

Humans are very good at deluding themselves. Nowhere is this more obvious than in poker. I have known many poker players who are mediocre, or even just plain awful, but who are able to convince themselves they are very good at the game. A New York Times article called “Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Overconfidence” highlights how common the delusion of overconfidence can be. It’s focused on stock market trading, but many of its lessons are applicable to the very psychologically similar world of poker playing.

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A tricky player with a rather unique betting motion tell

I was excited to find a new tell the other day. It’s one I’m surprised I’ve never noticed before, and I wonder if it might be fairly frequent. I’d imagine it might be common amongst the players who think they’re being very tricky.

There’s this guy who’s been playing the $15-30 game lately who’s a total unpredictable maniac. He will basically play any two when the feeling strikes him, and if he has any sort of piece of a flop, he will go all the way. He loves to checkraise on the turn with draws, and mediocre hands that most people would just call with, and of course his strong hands. He will regularly three-barrel bet with absolutely nothing. He loves to brag about how people can’t put him on a hand. He has multiple thousand dollar swings regularly. He’s very dangerous in the short term because he will put you to some hard decisions.

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Looking down quickly when betting a weak hand

For some players, an important place to get tells is during the flop continuation bet and turn continuation bet after they have raised pre-flop. There are little tendencies that can give you an indication that the pre-flop raiser either is comfortable betting or uncomfortable betting, and even if these tells are far from being 100% reliable, they still can be significant and influence your play. I sometimes use these type of tells to turn a borderline situation into a call, or a raise, or a fold, depending on what I see.

The opponent I’m writing about here I’ve only played a couple sessions of $15-30 limit with. He’s a tad too loose-aggressive in my opinion, but decent. Because he was getting involved in a lot of pots, I focused on figuring out his style. (I usually take that approach just because it makes sense to figure out the guy who’s playing a lot of hands, because you’ll probably end up playing him a good amount.) I won’t pretend that I always get good reads on players in a limit game; there are many decent players who I can’t get any good information from. When this is the case, I think about something else and don’t worry about that player’s tells.

This player, though, I was able to quickly see had a certain tendency that was very reliable. When he was betting with a weak hand, he had a tendency to look downward when he bet, and to keep a very neutral expression on his face. This is a common general tendency; it can just sometimes take a little while to see how it plays out in a specific player. Players will commonly avert their eyes downward when bluffing or semi-bluffing; it’s just a natural tendency for liars to avert their eyes. Whereas players who are value-betting are more likely to keep their eyes straight ahead or look at you more.

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Difficulty of categorizing and remembering tells

I think the key to mastering behavioral poker tells is knowing how to efficiently look for and interpret player behavior. What behavior for a player is giving you the most information? What behavior does the player exhibit the most frequently? What behavior is easiest to spot? The answers to all of these questions can be hard to figure out, and some behaviors will be very reliable but hard to spot, or very reliable but only performed infrequently.

You might have a player who has a very reliable tell (like playing with his chips a lot before betting when he has a very strong hand). But this tell is not ALWAYS performed when he has a strong hand; it’s just that when you DO see it, you are sure he’s got a strong hand. This can make it kind of inefficient to always be looking for that tell, just because if you’re always focusing on looking for that tell, there may be other information you’re missing. He might have other tells that are not as reliable (for instance, he might be more prone to talking after betting with a strong hand, or he might be more prone to betting with a quick motion when he’s betting a good hand) but that are much more frequent and easier to spot. How do you most efficiently observe that specific player? Should you be looking at his hands as he bets? Should you be focusing on the speed he bets with? Should you be watching his eyes? His posture? You only have so much power of concentration, and you’d like to put it to the most efficient use you can.

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Limit players who make it obvious they’re calling your bet

One of the more obvious behavioral tells you can see in any poker game is the “I’m calling you” move, where a player is ready to shove their chips into the pot, or in some cases actually does shove their chips into the pot before the bettor. There are several ways this tell can be displayed, and it means different things depending on a player’s tendencies and the situation, but in limit games this tell can basically be split into two main categories (which are very rough and which I’ve just now tried to define):

The almost-definite call, where a player basically has his chips lined up next to the betting line, ready to go in, or in some cases even beats the bettor into the pot. In limit, on the river, this is almost always displaying a real intention to call, although occasionally there will be a player who might do this defensively and then fold to a bet.

The less-definite threatening-to-call, where a player just holds his chips in a slightly threatening way, as if to say, “you better think about betting; I might call”. This instance is more likely to be a half-hearted attempt to prevent an opponent from betting, and is more likely to be a fold if the opponent does follow through and bet.

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Short-handed limit against a group of friends

Had a really bad short-handed $20-40 session yesterday. Was playing with these 4 guys who were all friends and who joked around and who all went out to dinner together. It was just me and them. They played in such a way that I felt I had zero edge against them as a group, despite feeling they were playing bad individually. This was a weird feeling that I’ve only gotten a couple times before. I am fairly certain they were not actively colluding, but playing against a group that doesn’t care about losing money to each other, but who will play hard against you, is a tough dynamic to fade.

I got stuck about $1,600 fairly quickly in the game, and just had a feeling like there was nothing I could do in the game to get ahead. Every time I’d get involved in a pot, I was facing most of the guys, and then I’d sometimes face a couple raises against my mediocre hand, or end up heads-up with a strong hand. And some of the guys would check down when in a pot together, and some of the guys would play against each other. It was hard to know what dynamic they had together, but it sure didn’t feel like I had any edge.

Again – not saying they were colluding. It’s just the case that with this kind of dynamic, it’s really hard to know where you’re at, or how the players’ relationships should change your adjustments. I would have quit the game sooner, but we were all waiting for the full main game. I thought I was stuck beyond repair for the day, but ended up getting even in the full game. It was probably one of the juiciest limit games I’ve ever played in.

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Joe Hachem versus an amateur’s quads

I was beating myself up the last couple days for a bad no-limit cash game call I made, but then I saw Joe Hachem trying to bluff an amateur off of quads and I felt a little better. While there are some legitimate reasons Hachem played this hand the way he did, all-in-all I think it was pretty obvious that the amateur was likely to have a huge hand. One of the factors in the hand was the amateur’s willingness to talk about the hand while it was going on which, as you probably know, is often a warning sign that a player is very strong.
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